[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N04W 4N19W 1N45W AND INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 08/0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST AND IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS INTO THE NW GULF WATERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM SW
LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N94W TO 25N96W. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA
N OF 25N W OF 91W. ALOFT...THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS ALONG 29N FROM THE W
ATLC...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DELTA NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. SE TO S WINDS ARE NOTED IN
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
PRECEDING THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD...NORTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE FRONT TO SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS
PROVIDING THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS. CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL NE TO E WINDS AND INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 15N E OF 74W. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALSO
PROVIDING INCREASED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT S OF 15N TO AID
IN SUSTAINING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ELSEWHERE W OF 72W ALOFT...NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW AND
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
KEEPING SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR AND INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 40W AND
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 29N65W. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER THE W ATLC FROM CUBA NE TO BEYOND BERMUDA
NEAR 32N65W. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE E/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N30W AND EXTENDS SW TO 23N37W BECOMING STATIONARY
TO SOUTH OF BARBADOS NEAR 12N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN
THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 3N39W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER
THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N10W AND SUPPORTS
AN EASTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 15N40W TO 32N20W. MAINLY NE
TRADES UP TO 20 KT ARE LOCATED EAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC UNDER GENERALLY FAIR SKIES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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