[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071707
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 8N12W TO 5N20W 3N31W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL ALONG 45W...TO
2S50W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N
MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF 30W. OVERCAST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...
FROM PRECIPITATION THAT MAY HAVE ENDED ALREADY...ARE FROM
6N OVER LAND TO 10N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO MEXICO. SOME OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF
88W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND
GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N...IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH THAT
IS INLAND FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD..

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N IN DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO MOVES
FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W BETWEEN JAMAICA
AND HAITI...AND WITHIN 40 NM OF THE COAST FROM 9N IN PANAMA
TO THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
PASSES THROUGH 33N35W TO 28N37W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM
32N33W TO 22N40W TO 16N50W TO BARBADOS AND 13N60W. SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N34W 29N31W BEYOND
32N30W. BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N59W 13N50W 22N30W BEYOND 32N22W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT GOES THROUGH 19N63W TO 22N50W 25N40W BEYOND 31N32W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
TO THE WEST OF 50W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 26N34W 29N31W BEYOND 32N30W. BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N59W 13N50W
22N30W BEYOND 32N22W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE WEST
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 48W...MOVING AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N69W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS TO THE EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...MOVING AROUND A RIDGE
THAT IS ALONG 32N19W 26N23W 18N29W 10N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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