[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 38W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
26W-34W AND ALSO FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 34W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENTIRE
GULF FROM A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 30N70W. THE
RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE GULF WITH SE SURFACE WINDS UP TO
20 KT AND OVERALL CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND ALONG THE SE U.S. SEABOARD BEYOND 32N77W THAT
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR NOTED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PROVIDE THE NW GULF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WEST OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS SE OF A LINE FROM BARBUDA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
11N74W. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 45W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 30N70W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
W ATLC. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N36W THAT SUPPORTS A 1004 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 35N40W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE OF THE LOW
ALONG 31N35W TO 22N40W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY SW ALONG
17N50W TO SOUTH OF BARBADOS NEAR 12N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 20N AND WITHIN
150 NM W OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 20N. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWS WEST OF THE UPPER LOW WITH AXIS ALONG
33N46W TO 27N53W THAT WILL ROTATE SOUTH OF THE LOW AND AID IN
MOVING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 34N20W TO 20N35W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
THE EASTERN ATLC WITH NE WINDS AND OVERALL FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN





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