[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N19W 1N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 46W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 12W-30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 41W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE
TO NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RESIDE OVER THE
GULF WITH SE WINDS OBSERVED UP TO 20 KT. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS
ALSO EVIDENT ON GOES-EAST NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AND INLAND SE TEXAS WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES
AND FOG POSSIBLE NW OF A LINE FROM 30N92W TO 20N97W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE W ATLC
AND EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N PROVIDING THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTRODUCES ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS...POSSIBLY TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE...ACROSS THE NW GULF.
ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND WITH IT A BROAD RIBBON OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE ENHANCING THE SURFACE RIDGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY BETWEEN 14-18N AS
NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 14N
TO 17N E OF 72W AND ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 13N TO
16N W OF 76W. THE TWO AREAS ARE A RESULT OF CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
NE WINDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET AND TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL
W-NW FLOW DOMINATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS IS
PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH GENERALLY DRY SUBSIDENT AIR THAT
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE U.S. SEABOARD FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA N-NE TO OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLC STATES AND BEYOND TO
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CANADA. THIS IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR
SKIES WITH LIGHT NE TO E WINDS UP TO 15 KT OVER THE W ATLC W OF
65W. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N53W
AND SUPPORTS A BROAD 1004 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N54W.
OCCLUDED N OF 32N...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N43W ALONG
25N47W TO 20N54W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO MARTINIQUE IN
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG 31N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM A 1030 MB HIGH
CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N19W ALONG 32N23W TO 10N50W. THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 34W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
TRADES DOMINATE S OF 20N ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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