[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 2N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 41W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 7W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD
ENCOMPASSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SE WINDS UP TO 20 KT. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS ALSO
OBSERVED ON NIGHT CHANNEL GOES-EAST SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF AND TEXAS GULF COAST WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND
FOG POSSIBLE W OF 92W THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS POOLING NEAR A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS
ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA SW INTO EASTERN TEXAS AND IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE W ATLC AND
EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N PROVIDING THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND
INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WITH IT A BROAD RIBBON OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE ENHANCING
THE SURFACE RIDGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY BETWEEN 14-17N AS
NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 14N
TO 17N E OF 70W AND ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 13N TO
16N W OF 75W. THE TWO AREAS ARE A RESULT OF CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
NE WINDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET AND TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL
W-NW FLOW DOMINATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS IS
PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH GENERALLY DRY SUBSIDENT AIR THAT
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE EASTERLY TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE U.S. SEABOARD FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA N-NE TO OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLC STATES AND BEYOND TO
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CANADA. THIS IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR
SKIES WITH LIGHT NE TO E WINDS UP TO 15 KT OVER THE W ATLC W OF
65W. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 34N53W
AND SUPPORTS A BROAD 1003 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N53W.
OCCLUDED N OF 31N...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 31N46W ALONG
25N48W TO 21N51W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO DOMINICA IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG 31N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM A 1032 MB HIGH
CENTERED E-NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N21W ALONG 32N23W TO 13N44W.
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 34W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
TRADES DOMINATE S OF 20N ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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