[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
THE EQUATOR AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 7W-12W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 35W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD
ENCOMPASSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN GULF
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE GULF IS LOCATED ON THE SW PERIPHERY
OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND IS EXPERIENCING SE WINDS UP TO 20 KT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NW
GULF WATERS LATER TODAY WHILE WEAKENING AS SURFACE RIDGING
REGAINS HOLD OVER THE SE CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY
SUNDAY. ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXES
ARE PROVIDING THE WESTERN GULF WITH INCREASED SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDINESS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N57W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT CROSSING ANTIGUA EXTENDING W TO NEAR 16N70W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS THE FRONT
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE NW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW LOCATED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 86W. THIS IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE SE
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE U.S. SEABOARD FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA N-NE TO THE MID-ATLC STATES AND BEYOND NOVA SCOTIA
CANADA. THIS IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT NE TO E WINDS UP TO 15 KT OVER THE
FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 32N57W AND SUPPORTS A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 30N56W.
LARGELY OCCLUDED N OF 30N...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 31N49W
ALONG 22N53W TO ANTIGUA WITHIN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT N OF 24N AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT S OF 24N. STRONG NLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE LOCATED IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AS SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W-74W. OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A
1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N23W. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE
FOCUSED NEAR A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N29W. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR THIS LOW HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 25W-34W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES WITH FRESH TO MODERATE NE TO E TRADES S OF 20N ACROSS
THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net