[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2350 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N11W...WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W
3N30W 2N40W TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR EQ48W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 140 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING OVER TEXAS...SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT IS MOVING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND WILL BE ENTERING
THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE
MOMENT...WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAIR WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN BASIN AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY LATE
MORNING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS...EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 17N63W
17N68W 16N74W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
NORTHERLY WINDS 5-15 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. EASTERLY WINDS
5-15 KT ARE SOUTH OF 16N AND WEST OF 74W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OF AIR WEST OF 74W...KEEPING
FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOK FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST-SOUTHEAST AS IT SLOWLY DISSIPATES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF
72W. AN OCCLUDED 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N55W. A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THIS LOW
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N50W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWEST ALONG 23N55W ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROUGH
THROUGH SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH STACKED OVER THE OCCLUDED
LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR 28N28W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
FROM THE CIRCULATION ALONG 20N35W TO 18N47W. THIS SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY A RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF 22N
BETWEEN 22W AND 32W. LOOK FOR THE OCCLUDED LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST PUSHING THE FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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