[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N11W TO 5N20W TO 3N30W 2N42W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
1S51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 14W AND 38W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURVING
ANTICYCLONICALLY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...FROM
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD 20N46W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE
EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR
26N106W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO...THROUGH THE
FAR WEST OF TEXAS AND BEYOND NEW MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING CENTRAL TEXAS AND IT JUST
CLEARED THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 29N108W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 90W.
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N60W TO
18N62W...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...TO 18N70W AND 16N76W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 19N60W 17N64W
17N69W 16N78W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND MOVES TOWARD THE GREATER
ANTILLES. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MERGES WITH
THE FRINGES OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST
OF 80W...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
RUNS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO
THE WEST OF 50W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 26N55W 20N60W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 18N62W...CURVING TO 18N70W AND 16N76W. THE FRONT ULTIMATELY
EMANATES FROM A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 50W
AND 62W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 35W. A TROUGH
IS ALONG 32N20W 28N27W 20N28W 16N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N29W TO 25N31W.
A REMNANT CLOUD LINE CONTINUES FROM 25N31W TO 19N39W 19N50W AND
19N59W. DUST AND HAZE AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE REMNANT
CLOUD LINE. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 25W AND 27W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 16N28W 22N24W
29N20W BEYOND 32N19W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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