[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N22W 2N42W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 48W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 18W-31W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NE BRAZIL COAST N OF
THE EQUATOR TO 4N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 02/0900 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W WITH E TO SE SURFACE FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS
MOST OF THE GULF. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS SUPPORTS THE SURFACE HIGH WITH MAINLY DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EAST GULF AND IS CENTERED WEST OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 26N84W. THIS FEATURE IS INDUCING A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
22N89W TO 19N92W AND LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR
PRECIPITATION. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...STRONG SE RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE
TEXAS GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD TO 21N62W...NORTH OF THE NE
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE MONA PASSAGE AND EXTENDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA
COAST FROM 18N69W TO 17N76W. CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL NE WINDS
COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ARE GENERATING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 66W-76W...INCLUDING MOST
OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS
UNDER GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WHICH ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NIGHT CHANNEL GOES-EAST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A 1001 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
33N62W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW AND INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W...CONTINUING S-SW ALONG 25N57W
20N63W TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM THE COLD
FRONT NEAR 24N57W TO NEAR ANGUILLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT S OF 25N...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALSO AS THE LOW DRIFTS SE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 62W-72W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW AS A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NE FLORIDA CONTINUES
TO SLIDE EASTWARD CREATING AN INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WATERS. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NE ATLC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N27W AND A TROUGH AXIS ALONG 28W TO 18N.
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
29N31W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 25W-30W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSES AGAINST
A QUASI-STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR
37N24W RESULTING IN INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT WITHIN
300 NM NE QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC E OF 50W...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES WITH
LIGHT NE TO E TRADES S OF 20N ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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