[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 4N36W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 22W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 02/0300 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND
REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N84W WITH E TO SE SURFACE FLOW OBSERVED
ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SE CONUS SUPPORTS THE SURFACE HIGH WITH MAINLY DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF AND IS CENTERED NORTH OF WESTERN CUBA
NEAR 26N85W. THIS FEATURE IS INDUCING A LOW-LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO
18N91W AND LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR PRECIPITATION. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...SE
RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST
EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD TO 21N65W...NORTH OF THE NE
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT AND
SHEARLINE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS SE HISPANIOLA FROM 19N69W
TO 17N74W. CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL NE WINDS COUPLED WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 62W-76W...INCLUDING MOST OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NIGHT CHANNEL GOES-EAST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
34N63W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW AND INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W...CONTINUING S-SW ALONG 27N55W
22N61W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO
ANALYZED FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 22N59W TO ACROSS THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE 200 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS. WEST OF THE FRONT...A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF
THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N80W CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND
PROVIDE BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 24N BETWEEN 62W-72W. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NE ATLC
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL AXIS ALONG 30W TO 18N. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N30W AND
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
27N BETWEEN 24W-31W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD WHILE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSES AGAINST A QUASI-
STATIONARY 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N22W
RESULTING IN INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT WITHIN 240 NM
NE QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC
E OF 50W...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES WITH LIGHT NE TO E
TRADES S OF 20N ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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