[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N26W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 42W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 3N16W TO 3N28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 20W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD
ENCOMPASSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN GULF
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE GULF IS LOCATED ON THE SW PERIPHERY
OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND IS EXPERIENCING SE WINDS UP TO 20 KT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED
60 TO 90 NM INLAND FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NW GULF WATERS LATER TODAY WHILE WEAKENING
AS SURFACE RIDGING REGAINS CONTROL OVER THE SE CONUS AND
NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER
RIDGE AXES ARE PROVIDING THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF WITH INCREASED
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N56W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT CROSSING GUADELOUPE EXTENDING WESTWARD AS A DISSIPATING
FRONT TO NEAR 16N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 14N E OF
77W ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AS
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DRY AND STABLE W TO NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOCATED EAST OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN
ALONG 85W. THIS IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE SE AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE U.S. SEABOARD FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA N-NE TO THE MID-ATLC STATES AND BEYOND NOVA SCOTIA
CANADA. THIS IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT NE TO E WINDS UP TO 15 KT OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W.
FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N56W AND
SUPPORTS A BROAD 1002 MB LOW NEAR 31N56W. LARGELY OCCLUDED N OF
30N...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N49W ALONG 24N50W TO
GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW
CENTER WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT N OF 23N AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT S OF 23N. STRONG NLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE LOCATED IN THE
WEST AND NW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW AS SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 56W-73W. OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 16N40W.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE
FOCUSED ALONG 31N32W 28N29W 24N31W. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
THIS SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND THUS CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 25N-33N
BETWEEN 25W-31W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES S OF 20N ACROSS THE TROPICAL
NORTH ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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