[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
21W...TO 4S30W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 6S42W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN BRAZIL AND
NEARBY WATERS FROM 1N TO 3S BETWEEN 43W AND 51W. ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 5N EAST OF 15W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 3N
BETWEEN 27W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT IS MOSTLY NORTH
OF 32N. THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF 32N APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY
WESTERLY. WHAT WAS A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM
THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
24N/25N APPEARS TO BE WEAKER AND WEAKER NOW. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N63W TO 26N77W NEAR THE BAHAMAS.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N77W...JUST
NORTH OF ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 25N85W
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
IS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS BEING STRETCHED
TO THE EAST NORTH OF 32N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A CENTER THAT
IS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA AS INFERRED BY THE
31/0900 CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM VENEZUELA NORTHWARD...SHIFTING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WATERS TO THE EAST OF 70W.
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO IS EAST OF 78W. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS WEST OF 78W...MOVING TOWARD THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W.
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 64W/65W IN SHORTWAVE INFRARED
IMAGERY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N29W TO 24N31W TO 19N40W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 30N
BETWEEN 20W AND 25W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N27W 19N396W TO 14N53W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A RIDGE THAT IS IN
BETWEEN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD
FRONT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN THE STATIONARY
FRONT AND THE TROUGH...AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 27N51W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 19N25W.

$$
MT



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