[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N3W 2N15W 1N25W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 32W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO
6N BETWEEN 5W-12W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF NE BRAZIL  BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS PUSHING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF 28N. AS
OF 1500 UTC...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE ENTERING THE GULF NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH AND
EXTENDING TO 28N90W. THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT CROSSES SOUTH FLORIDA AND CLIPS THE EXTREME EASTERN
GULF NEAR 26N82W. THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N EAST OF
84W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W
ATLC AND THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MEXICO ARE
PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG AND SHIFT NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
LATER TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH FRESH EASTERLY
TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. ABUNDANT DRY AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS PREVENTING CONVECTION
BEYOND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC EXTENDS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. AS OF 1500 UTC THE FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N57W AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N64W TO
27N71W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
BEFORE CROSSING OVER FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATES A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC. A 1021 MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
26N55W. PATCHY CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG A SFC
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLC. THE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
31N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG 25N27W 20N33W TO 18N41W. A
DISSIPATING SFC LOW IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 27N27W. DIVERGENCE
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER AFRICA IS GENERATING MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST EAST OF 14N.


$$
WADDINGTON





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