[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC...AND METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W TO THE EQUATOR
ALONG 15W...TO 4S24W 4S30W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
7S40W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
NORTHERN BRAZIL FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S BETWEEN 48W AND 54W.
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 3S BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 7N11W 5N26W 5N40W 4N50W...
AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...TO 26N77W NEAR THE BAHAMAS.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N77W...JUST
NORTH OF ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 25N85W IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 33N66W TO 28N67W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA. THE
TROUGH CONTINUES BUT COMPARATIVELY MUCH MUCH WEAKER FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N98W. THE TROUGH IS
BEING STRETCHED TO THE EAST NORTH OF 32N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A CENTER THAT
IS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA AS INFERRED BY THE
31/0300 CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM VENEZUELA NORTHWARD...SHIFTING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WATERS TO THE EAST OF 70W.
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO IS EAST OF 78W. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS WEST OF 78W...MOVING TOWARD THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W. BROKEN
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W.
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 64W/65W IN SHORTWAVE INFRARED
IMAGERY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO A 1015 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N20W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 26N28W 24N30W AND 20N41W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 31N
BETWEEN 23W AND 27W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N27W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N29W 20N36W TO 14N54W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A RIDGE THAT IS IN
BETWEEN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD
FRONT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN THE 32N29W
17N50W COLD FRONT AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT...AROUND
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 25N21W TO 19N28W.

$$
MT





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