[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 302353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 24W...AND CONTINUING ALONG 1S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 11W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO KEY WEST FLORIDA AND INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 24N87W.
THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE SE GULF AND SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 87W S OF 26N...
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES
THE WRN GULF W OF 90W AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL USHER IN THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE
NW GULF MIDDAY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH FRESH ELY TRADES
OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. PATCHES OF SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY PRODUCING BRIEF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS CONCENTRATED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND ERN HONDURAS FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 81W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 30N70W TO
25N77W IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE FRONT CONTINUES WWD AS A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
26N WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WWD INTO THE SE GULF.
FARTHER TO THE E...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC
NEAR 30N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NE ATLC AND
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N30W
EXTENDING ALONG 28N30W 23N35W 18N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 26N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER W AFRICA EXTENDS WWD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 18N TO 55W AND IS PROVIDING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN



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