[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AT 5N9W TO EQ23W
TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM
1S-5S BETWEEN 33W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N79W
PRODUCING E-SE SURFACE FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF WITH 20 KT. THE E GULF E OF
90W HAS PATCHES OF BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. MOSTLY FAIR SKIS ARE OVER THE W GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
88W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF
90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF. EXPECT...THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO DRIFT E TO 80W IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
SURFACE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO PUERTO RICO WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING E. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...PANAMA...HONDURAS...
BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. A LINE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS EXTEND FROM N COLOMBIA TO BEYOND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT AN
INCREASE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS OF W VENEZUELA AND N
COLOMBIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NE SURFACE FLOW IS ADVECTING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA NE COAST N OF COCOA BEACH. SIMILAR
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N55W TO PUERTO RICO AT 18N66W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT MOSTLY N OF 25N. A 1023
MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N41W. THE TAIL
END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N33W
28N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF
25N AND W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 30W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC E OF 30W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N50W
IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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