[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 25W...TO 1S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 2W-7W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE ERN GULF
E OF 90W AND IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON 15-20
KT E-NE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE ERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SE
GULF E OF 85W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS IN THE SE GULF N OF THE NWRN CUBA
COAST NEAR 23N84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ON A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N74W. MOSTLY ELY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE E GULF WHILE SE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE ACROSS
THE WRN GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO THE W ATLC AND PROVIDE THE
WRN AND CENTRAL GULF WITH SLY RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED WINDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SRN PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A COLD
FRONT OVER THE W ATLC AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 17N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WHILE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF ELY
TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 17N BETWEEN 67W-78W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL WRN ATLC IS PROVIDING
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SW UPPER FLOW AS THE TAIL END OF A 80
TO 100 KT STREAM JET EXTENDS FROM ERN HONDURAS NE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...CONVERGENT NE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF WRN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF
11N W OF 80W. SIMILAR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND INLAND ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W AND EXTENDS
ALONG 30N57W 26N60W 20N64W AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
FOUND E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N. TO THE W OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE W ATLC...A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N74W AND IS PROVIDING THE W
ATLC WITH NE TO ELY SURFACE FLOW USHERING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TO
THE E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL AND E ATLC...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF THE AZORES TO
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
UNDER MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT NE TO E FLOW.

$$
HUFFMAN




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