[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 21W ALONG THE EQUATOR...
TO 2S30W 3S36W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 6S43W. ISOLATED
MODERATE AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 4N EAST OF THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL COAST JUST WEST OF 50W...AND
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. THIS FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS TROUGH. A REMNANT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC SWIRL IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA OFF THE
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA
ALSO. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT SOME ISOLATED AND CUT-OFF
CYCLONIC SWIRLS MAY REMAIN FROM THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH THAT HAS
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO ARE
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WINDS
ARE BLOWING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA. A HINT OF A REMNANT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC SWIRL AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS ARE OFF THE WESTERN
COAST OF CUBA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N56W
26N63W 20N65W COLD FRONT IS IN THE MONA PASSAGE. A FEW CLUSTERS
OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TO 19N BETWEEN THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND 66W...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BUT POSSIBLY NOT RELATED TO THE FRONT.
SIMILAR CLOUD CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN INTERIOR HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN CLUSTERS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN A CURVED BAND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 15N70W 14N74W 13N77W TO THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N78W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 55W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N63W...AND CONTINUES TO 20N65W AND THE
MONA PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 24N62W 28N58W BEYOND 32N54W. A STATIONARY FRONT
IS ALONG 33N33W TO 31N34W...CONTINUING AS A TROUGH FROM 31N34W
TO 28N37W AND 27N41W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT OF A TROUGH FROM YESTERDAY HAS DIMINISHED
AND IT IS NOT EASILY DISTINGUISHABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT
THIS TIME. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 36N16W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER REACHES
AT LEAST 30N15W JUST NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
MT





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