[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 24W...TO 1S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 42W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN CONUS AND GULF
OF MEXICO E OF 92W INTO THE W ATLC WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
OBSERVED MAINLY OVER THE SRN GULF S OF 22N. AS OF 0900 UTC...A
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF AND IS
SUPPORTING POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN
GULF FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 85W-90W...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
NE TO E SURFACE FLOW OVER THE ERN GULF. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
THE SE CONUS ACROSS THE WRN GULF TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO WHERE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FOUND WITH
LIGHT 10-15 KT E-SE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ERN CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE BRAZIL THROUGH
10N60W TO OVER PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS ARE ACROSS
THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THEY FEED INTO A 80 TO 100 KT JET STREAM
WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE EXTENDING FROM S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N73W
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
TYPICAL CONVERGENT NE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF WRN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF
12N W OF 80W. SIMILAR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WITHIN 90 NM OF A
LINE ALONG 15N70W 13N74W 10N78W IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO ERN HISPANIOLA AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND...THE MONA
PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING ADJACENT COASTAL CARIBBEAN
SEA WATERS WITHIN 50 NM.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING IS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND EXTENDS ACROSS
THE WRN ATLC W OF 60W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
NEAR 32N58W AND EXTENDS SW INTO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
28N64W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW S ALONG 24N65W TO
19N69W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHING IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 28N61W SWD TO 20N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 23N. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N55W THEN CONTINUES NE TO BEYOND 32N45W. A
JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS WITHIN 200 NM OF A
LINE FROM THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA TO 21N50W. A
SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 25W-40W WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
31N34W SW TO 25N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E ATLC AND TROPICAL
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS OBSERVED UNDER 10-20 KT NE TO ELY FLOW.

$$
HUFFMAN





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