[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 23W...TO 1S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 41W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN CONUS AND GULF OF
MEXICO E OF 90W INTO THE W ATLC WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
OBSERVED MAINLY OVER THE SRN GULF S OF 25N. AS OF 0300 UTC...
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS TO NEAR
KEY WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME SRN
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS EMBEDDED
WITHIN STRONG NE SURFACE FLOW. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS NRN FLORIDA
TO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO.
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF IN
THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS N OF 23N BETWEEN 86W-94W...BUT OVERALL
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST WITH LIGHT 10-15 KT E-SE SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF W OF 88W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ERN CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE BRAZIL THROUGH
10N60W TO OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE
WRN CARIBBEAN AS THEY FEED INTO A 80 TO 100 KT JET STREAM WITHIN
200 NM OF LINE EXTENDING FROM S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N76W ACROSS
HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE ERN AND SW CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. TYPICAL CONVERGENT NE SURFACE
FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF WRN
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 12N W OF 80W. SIMILAR EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO
INLAND OVER WRN HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND ERN GUATEMALA W OF 85W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO
NEAR PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND...INCLUDING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 50
NM.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING IS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND EXTENDS ACROSS
THE WRN ATLC W OF 60W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
NEAR 32N62W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 27N70W WEAKENING TO A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
BOUNDARY IS GENERATING LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS EXTREME
SRN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS N OF 23N AND W OF 76W. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC...A 1014 MB LOW
IS NEAR 28N63W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 25N65W
THEN SW OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS
NE FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 32N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 22N. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 20N57W THEN CONTINUES NE TO BEYOND 32N45W. A JET
STREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS WITHIN 200 NM OF A
LINE FROM THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 21N55W. A
SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 30W-40W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 32N34W EXTENDING SW TO 25N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E
ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WITH
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OBSERVED UNDER 10-20 KT NE TO ELY FLOW.

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net