[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
44W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-3S BETWEEN 17W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
AT 25N80W TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
FRONT OVER THE E GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE E GULF E OF 92W WHILE MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE W GULF.
15-20 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 KT SE WINDS ARE
S OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S AND 60'S OVER THE
NORTH GULF STATES AND ARE IN THE 70'S S OF THE FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY AND WEAKEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLUMBIA WITH 25-30 KT. PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE
MARACAIBO...FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 70W-72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG
32N61W 28N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT
25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONTS. A 1020
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N54W MOVING E.
FURTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
32N31W 28N40W 28N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
E OF THE FRONT. A 1006 MB LOW IS W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR
33N19W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N FROM FLORIDA TO
WEST AFRICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N25W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH CENTER
TO TRINIDAD. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE
E TO 32N46W WITH SHOWERS IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO LIKEWISE MOVE E TO 32N17W WITH
SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA






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