[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N19W 1N31W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 36W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 4N BETWEEN 11W-14W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 19W-26W AND S OF 3N
BETWEEN 29W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AT
25N80W TO A 1017 MB LOW OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N86W AND
CONTINUES SW TO 23N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA AND ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT OVER THE E
GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W
WHILE MOSTLY FAIR SHIES ARE OVER THE W GULF. 10-15 KT NE WINDS
ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 KT SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S AND 60'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES
AND ARE IN THE 70'S S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE
FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONGEST WINDS
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLUMBIA WITH 25-30 KT. PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...N
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA...AND NW VENEZUELA NEAR
LAKE MARACAIBO...FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 71W-74W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG
32N65W 28N70W 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N56W
MOVING E. FURTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N33W 29N40W 28N50W 32N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1008 MB LOW IS W OF
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N
OF 20N FROM FLORIDA TO WEST AFRICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 5N25W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO TRINIDAD. EXPECT...THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO 32N53W WITH SHOWERS IN 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO
LIKEWISE MOVE E TO 32N22W WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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