[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 3N10W CONTINUING ALONG THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W TO 40W AND EXTENDING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
2S45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 4N
BETWEEN 18W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR 25N83W IN
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 85W. ALSO ACROSS THE ERN GULF A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 24N88W TO 28N86W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 85W-88W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
ARE OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF WITH 10-15 KT NE
WINDS W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF UP TO 30 KT BLOWING ALONG THE COAST OF NRN
COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N W OF 80W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W
WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1001 MB LOW CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N69W
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N59W SW ALONG 26N65W 24N70W. THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO 28N BETWEEN
76W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N40W. FURTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N27W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 30N28W
27N40W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS STATIONARY TO THE NW ALONG 28N45W
31N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT
AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N W OF 60W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 4N29W EXTENDS NWD THROUGH
10N40W 20N50W TO BEYOND 32N45W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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