[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 4N7W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
15W...TO 1SN20W...TO 2S42W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S47W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 3N BETWEEN 3W AND 6W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST
OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CUTS INTO THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IS ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N75W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N75W TO PUERTO RICO TO THE VENEZUELA/
GUYANA BORDER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 28N46W TO MARTINIQUE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COSTA RICA NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND GUADELOUPE.
BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUD
FIELD. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST AND
IN THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...EXPECT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 12 FT TO 16 FT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
BEEN TIGHT IN THAT AREA UNDER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW DURING
THE LAST FEW DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MEAN CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N46W. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTER TO 21N53W TO AT LEAST MARTINIQUE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 1003 MB GALE CENTER NEAR
24N49W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N50W
AND 29N45W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N45W TO 20N43W 12N50W
9N54W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N BEYOND
32N BETWEEN 34W AND 48W. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 14 FT TO 22 FT ARE ROUGHLY NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN
38W AND 55W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N15W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM 18N IN MAURITANIA BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 6W IN WESTERN
ALGERIA AND 30W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE GALE CENTER AND FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N75W INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A RIDGE
ALONG 30W FROM 4N BEYOND 32N.

$$
MT





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