[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091710
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 20W THEN ALONG 3S FROM 25W TO THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N
BETWEEN 3W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER THE E AND CENTRAL GULF. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
COVERS THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN GULF NW OF A LINE
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SE OF THIS
LINE...DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS LIMITING MOISTURE TO PATCHY CLOUDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC COMBINED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ARE MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS...30-35 KT...ARE NOTED
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W WHERE A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...
HOWEVER...CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THE 1004 MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N46W. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 28N47W 30N43W
TO 28N40W WHERE IT CONNECTS TO A COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES ALONG
26N39W 20N42W TO 8N53W. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SFC TROUGH IS BEHIND THE FRONT
FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 25N44W TO 17N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 20 NM OF THIS TROUGH. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND A
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT WITHIN 60-330 NM IN THE NE
QUADRANT...30-150 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT...AND 120-240 NM IN THE
N QUADRANT OF THE LOW. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR MORE
DETAILS. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1024 MB HIGH
NEAR 27N74W DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC WEST OF 55W. THIS RIDGE IS
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC
AND CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE AZORES TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC...DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS...NE BRAZIL AND THE
GUYANAS.

$$
WADDINGTON



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