[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090503
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC...AND METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 4N7W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
16W...TO 1SN25W...TO 1S40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S48W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR
TO THE COASTS OF GHANA AND THE IVORY COAST BETWEEN 1W AND 4W.
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 8N EAST OF 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CUTS INTO THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N72W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N72W TO PUERTO RICO TO GUADELOUPE TO
TRINIDAD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 27N51W TO 16N57W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM COSTA RICA NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND GUADELOUPE. BROAD LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE BLOWING ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST AND IN THE WATERS
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11 FT TO 16 FT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED IN
THAT AREA UNDER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD MEAN 28N47W CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH FROM THE CENTER
TO 22N55W TO AT LEAST ANTIGUA IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 1003 MB GALE CENTER NEAR 25N50W.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N50W AND
29N46W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N46W TO 24N43W 16N45W
9N53W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N BEYOND
32N BETWEEN 34W AND 48W. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 16 FT TO 24 FT ARE ROUGHLY NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN
38W AND 55W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N16W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM 18N IN MAURITANIA BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 6W IN WESTERN
ALGERIA AND 30W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE GALE CENTER AND FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N72W INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A RIDGE
ALONG 30W FROM 4N BEYOND 32N.

$$
MT





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