[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 262302
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE IVORY COAST NEAR 6N7W TO 3N20W TO 2N30W TO 1N40W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT THE EQUATOR ALONG 52W.
AN UNKNOWN AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT IS ON TOP
OF THE AREA FROM EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL TO SURINAME MAY BE
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/WATERS
FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W...AND INLAND FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 3N BETWEEN 54W AND 55W FROM BRAZIL INTO FRENCH GUIANA AND
SURINAME. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 4N
BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 5W AND 13W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA. A SHALLOW STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N75W TO 31N80W TO 30N84W. THE FRONT
BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N84W TO 29N90W TO
30N95W AT THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1026 MB NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N81W
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N87W 25N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA.
A WESTWARD-MOVING MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD
80W FROM 11N TO 17N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH OF 15N
WEST OF 80W...FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...FROM 15N TO
17N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W...
AND IN INDIVIDUAL LINES OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 11N59W TO 14N55W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N53W TO 22N52W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THE WESTERN SAHARA TO
10N24W TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ONE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA FROM
15N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STARTS IN SOUTH AMERICA...FROM SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NORTHWARD TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 33N46W TO 29N50W TO 27N54W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N45W TO
27N56W TO 25N63W AND 23N67W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF A TROUGH THAT STILL WAS
PART OF THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS AT 26/1200 UTC. THIS TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N20W TO A SECOND 1027 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N31W TO 27N45W.

$$
MT





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