[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261823 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N3W 2N12W 1N30W 2N43W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 9W-17W WITH CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 2W-9W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 47W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION AND EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE GULF
UPPER W TO NW FLOW WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER
AIR. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY LIFTING N OVER THE
NW GULF ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS NE FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO
THE APALACHEE BAY THEN JUST OFF SHORE OF LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT E OF 94W. A SURFACE RIDGE
FROM THE W ATLC S OF THE FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH A 1025 MB HIGH ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXISTING S OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRANQUIL UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE
NW PART TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
DIPS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED
BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS CAPPING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE LOW LEVELS. THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA/W JAMAICA TO
NEAR 13N81W IS BEING DRIVEN W BY LOW/MID LEVEL NE FLOW. PATCHES
OF LOW CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE TROUGH
TO OVER CUBA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TO OVER THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF W
PANAMA/COSTA RICA/E NICARAGUA. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS N OF THE AREA
THEN WEAKEN AGAIN ON FRI AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO
THE NW REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE REMAINS QUIET TODAY. OVER THE W
ATLC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED FROM BERMUDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY N
OF THE REGION. THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
24N66W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER E
CUBA AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SE AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS W OF THE TROUGH TO 78W. WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 28N52W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
NEAR 14N70W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N49W TO
27N57W DRIFTING EASTWARD. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NW TO NEAR 30N40W.
OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NEAR
31N32W IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE





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