[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N7W 2N23W 0N33W 1S49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS W
OF 48W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 6W-16W ASSOCIATED
WITH A SECONDARY CONVERGENT LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY LIFTING N OVER THE FAR NRN GULF
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS. WHILE NIGHT CHANNEL SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG
AND N OF THE FRONT...DOPPLER RADAR IS ONLY DETECTING ISOLATED
EMBEDDED SHOWERS OFF THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. FAIR AND
MILD CONDITIONS EXIST S OF THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT N OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. SFC WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR ELY 15-20 KT FLOW SPREADING THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALOFT...A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF IS PERTURBING THE WLY ZONAL PATTERN...ONLY
MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY IN ITS VICINITY. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRANQUIL UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE
NW PART TUE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN CUBA
TO 14N80W IS BEING DRIVEN W BY LOW-MID LEVEL NE FLOW. ENHANCED
PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED W OF THE
TROUGH LINE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY PRODUCING AREAS OF LOW TOPPED RAINFALL OVER AND E/NE OF
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN IN WRN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH ALONG 69W S OF 15N IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY WWD IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS CAPPING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW ACTIVITY. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS N OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE IS QUIET TONIGHT. OVER THE WRN
ATLC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED FROM BERMUDA TO
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMING THE
FORMATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 32N73W. THERE ARE MINIMAL
SENSIBLE WEATHER EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY S OF 32N.
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FARTHER NE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
63W-67W. A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN...BETWEEN TROUGHING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 37W...IS
PRODUCING A BROKEN PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE
WX EFFECTS AT THE SFC. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN SAHARAN
AFRICA IS PRODUCING UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND
OVER THE CONTINENT. OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES
NEAR 31N32W IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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