[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N23W 0N32W 1S47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 5W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY LIFTING N OVER THE FAR NRN GULF
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS. WHILE NIGHT CHANNEL SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG
AND N OF THE FRONT...DOPPLER RADAR IS ONLY DETECTING A FEW
EMBEDDED SHOWERS OFF THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. FAIR AND
MILD CONDITIONS EXIST S OF THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT N OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. SFC WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR ELY 15-20 KT WINDS SPREADING
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALOFT...A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
PERTURBING THE WLY ZONAL PATTERN...WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE IN ITS VICINITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO 14N80W IS BEING DRIVEN W BY LOW-MID LEVEL NE FLOW.
PATCHY CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED W OF THE TROUGH
LINE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS IS LIKELY
PRODUCING AREAS OF LOW TOPPED RAINFALL OVER AND E/NE OF THE
MOUNTAIN CHAIN IN WRN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.  ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH IS ALONG 67W S OF 15N MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY W IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY ALSO PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS CAPPING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW ACTIVITY. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS N OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE IS QUIET TONIGHT. OVER THE WRN
ATLC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED FROM BERMUDA TO
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH QSCAT DATA CONFIRMING THE FORMATION OF
A FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 32N74W. THERE ARE MINIMAL SENSIBLE WEATHER
EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY S OF 32N. THE REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONT IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SE AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND FARTHER NE FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 65W-67W. A HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN...BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 37W...IS PRODUCING A
BROKEN PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE WX EFFECTS
AT THE SFC. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN SAHARAN AFRICA IS
PRODUCING UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND.
OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES NEAR 30N32W IS
PRODUCING FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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