[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 252340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 3N18W 1N29W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 42W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO ACROSS THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 39W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO S
TEXAS ALONG 31N80W 30N87W 26N98W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS S
OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. 5 KT
VARIABLE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 KT S WINDS ARE S OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 50 DEGREES N OF THE FRONT. IN
CONTRAST TEMPERATURES OVER S FLORIDA ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS
ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT...
THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LEAVING THE
GULF WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA AT 20N71W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT 16N78W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH ESPECIALLY OVER
JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 75W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT...THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N70W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N54W
TO NEAR 25N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N32W. AN
AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N
BETWEEN 30W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 70W. ZONAL FLOW IS BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N51W. A LARGE
RIDGE IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-45W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 20N17W. EXPECT...THE
TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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