[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251703
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 3N18W 1N29W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 42W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO ACROSS THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 39W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF N OF 24N FROM
TEXAS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A FRONT WHICH
HAS BECOME NEAR STATIONARY EXTENDING ACROSS NE FLORIDA ALONG
29N84W TO 25N96W THEN DIPS S TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO
WITH THE WESTERN PORTION BEGINNING TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE FRONT WITH MAINLY OVERCAST
LOW LEVEL STRATUS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NW OF THE
FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
ANCHORED ON A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UNIFORM WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE UPPER AIR. THE REMNANTS OF A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUT HAS
LOST THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. IT NOW
EXTENDS FROM 21N70W ACROSS HAITI TO 15N75W WITH ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LOW IN
THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND EXTENDS TO JUST OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE E
TO NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF
12N W OF 81W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC W OF
63W SUPPORTING A FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC JUST N OF THE REGION
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS N OF THE REGION. THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ARE ONLY SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N56W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ALONG WITH THE SE BAHAMAS ARE MOVING AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS OVER HAITI. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 20N51W COVERING THE AREA
FROM 10N-26N BETWEEN 46W-61W AND IS BEGINNING TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20N18W EXTENDING AN
UPPER TROUGH SW TO 12N27W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 36W. A SURFACE
RIDGE OVERS THE W ATLC S OF 30N W OF 60W TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N69W AND A 1022 MB HIGH OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SECOND LARGER SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
AREA E OF 55W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER AFRICA
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 32N33W.

$$
WALLACE



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