[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270623
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N25W 1N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-27W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N W OF 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE GULF BENEATH SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT AND E TO SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE S/SW PERIPHERY
OF W ATLC HIGH PRES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FAR SE WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINGERING
SFC TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS TRANQUIL PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT.
NWP MODELS ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SFC OBS AND QSCAT DATA REVEAL INCREASING ELY TRADES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...EXCEPT TO
GALE FORCE IN THE TYPICALLY STRONG ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AS REVEALED IN HI-RES QSCAT DATA. AS IT USUAL WITH THIS
STRONG FLOW REGIME...PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ARE BEING STEERED WWD BY THE TRADES. CLOUDINESS APPEARS
MOST ORGANIZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN LIKELY ENHANCED SOME BY A
SFC TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS MOISTURE IS
SHALLOW IN NATURE CAPPED BY ABUNDANT DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT...AS
NOTED IN SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLACKEN OVER THE W CARIBBEAN BY WED IN RESPONSE TO A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA ON FRI.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT WITH THE ONLY
SYNOPTIC SFC FEATURE BEING A LINGERING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG 32N46W 25N62W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SCATTERED CLOUDS AND
EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE TROUGH LINE. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE N BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLC...BUT IS PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE REGION.
FARTHER E...STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N30W IS MAINTAINING
20-25 KT NE/E TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS RATHER BENIGN. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A E ATLC RIDGE IS PRODUCING
A BROKEN PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY STABLE
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE.

$$
CANGIALOSI





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