[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA BORDER NEAR 8N11W TO 3N20W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 3S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 7N EAST OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ONLY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF
90W AS THE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE IS COVERING THE AREA
EAST OF 90W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ALSO
IS EVERYWHERE. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM GUATEMALA TO CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N61W. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 27N70W...
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 22N79W. THE FRONT BECOMES
DISSIPATING STATIONARY AND CONTINUES FROM 22N79W TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. GALE FORCE WINDS OR NEAR-GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FT TO 15 FT. A 1017 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 66W...
MOVING ON TOP OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 12N55W TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS MOSTLY EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CORNERS OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS ALONG 26N50W BEYOND 32N46W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N36W
TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 18N46W TO 12N55W TO
NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N38W TO
26N53W TO 23N70W.

$$
MT





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