[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091127
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA BORDER NEAR 8N11W TO 3N20W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 3S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 7N...TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...EAST OF 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE DISAPPEARED COMPLETELY.
MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW APPEARS TO COVER THE GULF EAST OF 90W. THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH SEEMS TO HAVE EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO
COMPLETELY. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ADVANCES GRADUALLY
MORE AND MORE TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN GULF MOVES
EASTWARD WITH TIME. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
ALSO IS EVERYWHERE. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS EXITED THE
GULF OF MEXICO COMPLETELY PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO ANDROS ISLAND
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM GUATEMALA TO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N57W. THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS ONE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N61W TO 26N70W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO
22N78W. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY AND CONTINUES
FROM 22N78W TO NORTHERN BELIZE. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N
TO 32N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SECOND COLD
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...PASSING THROUGH
32N73W TO 29N80W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...CONTINUING ACROSS LOUISIANA AS
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER REMAINS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 66W...
MOVING ON TOP OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 12N58W TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS MOSTLY EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CORNERS OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS ALONG 26N50W BEYOND 32N46W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N37W
TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 17N48W TO 12N58W TO NORTHWESTERN
COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N31W TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 30N39W TO 26N57W TO 22N70W.

$$
MT



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