[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 28W AND
INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 8S-2N BETWEEN 25W-33W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE NE BRAZIL COAST
BETWEEN 41W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE
GULF AS A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N91W.
MULTILEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FLORIDA
STRAITS WHILE DRY AIR IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED ELSEWHERE
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE GULF. THE SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA ENTERING
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N81W AND CONTINUING SW TO THE CENTRAL
BELIZE COAST NEAR 17N88W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO
20 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA AND PROVIDES THE
BASIN WITH DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE MAINLY E OF 82W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD AND SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N65W AND CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR
23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT. AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EWD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE SAT. THE REST
OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1026 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N40W. FAIR WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS FLOW AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ALOFT...
INSTABILITY AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE AROUND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20N46W
IS GENERATING A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N-18N
BETWEEN 32W-50W.

$$
HUFFMAN


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