[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 30W
AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 60NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-28W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM 1S-5S
BETWEEN 27W-33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NORTH OF THE AXIS TO 2N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAVERSED THE REGION OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. MULTILEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF
AND THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY
CLEAR. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS 10-15 KT FLOW AROUND A WEAK 1018 MB
SFC HIGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE HIGH WAS
CENTERED NEAR 26N91W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA AND ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N81W. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO 20N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE COAST OF
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. E TO SE
WINDS 10-15 KT ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...PATCHY CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT IN THE W ATLC. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N68W AND CONTINUES ALONG 25N76W ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM OF THE FRONT. S TO SW
WINDS 20-30 KT ARE OBSERVED E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE WITHIN 180NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND
N OF 29N AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD BEFORE
DISSIPATING SAT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1025 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N41W. FAIR
WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE.
ALOFT...INSTABILITY AROUND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20N46W IS
GENERATING A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE SHOWERS.

$$
WADDINGTON



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