[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082259
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N20W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W AND 40W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 6W-10W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
11W-15W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
15W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N97W. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER E
TEXAS AND THE NW GULF BETWEEN 90W-100W. MOSTLY FAR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 15-20 KT SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N AND W OF 90W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...RETURN
FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA OVER THE
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER S GEORGIA AND A
1010 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IS PRODUCING STRONG SHOWERS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND W CUBA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W-71W. MORE SHOWERS
WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA W OF 82W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N75W. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N34W TO 25N45W 21N59W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 40W. A 1026
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N14W. IN THE TROPICS... A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N41W 15N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-80W. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 40W WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N. EXPECT...
ADDITIONAL TROPICAL SHOWERS TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 50W-60W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA











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