[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 6N10W IN WESTERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 1N20W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 26W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 3N
BETWEEN 3W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 3N
BETWEEN 20W AND 50W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA.
EAST OF 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE 300 NM TO 400 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 28N83W TO 22N89W TO
18N95W...WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND A RIDGE ALONG
89W/90W. A DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH
TEXAS FROM WEST TEXAS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N81W TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TWO INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC FEATURES FROM SIX HOURS AGO APPEAR
TO HAVE BLENDED TOGETHER AND NOW FORM ONE COMPARATIVELY BIGGER
AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND
82W...FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO
HAITI. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION COVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 11N
TO 18N BETWEEN 81W AND 91W. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 66W/67W
FROM 14N TO 21N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
32N43W TO 29N60W TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N81W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT
STRETCHES FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N29W TO 26N35W TO 22N42W. A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 56W/57W FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD. ISOLATED
AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM THE SURINAME COAST TO
11N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER AND
POSSIBLY ALREADY-DISSIPATED PRECIPITATION IN SURINAME AND GUYANA
HAVE BEEN WARMING COMPARATIVELY DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N29W 3N34W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF
THE 17N29W 3N34W TROUGH.

$$
MT





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