[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 7N11W IN WESTERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 1N20W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 23W...TO 1S30W 1S40W MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W. ISOLATED
AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 5N EAST OF 35W.
 ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM THE COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA
AND SURINAME TO 9N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W...IN BROAD LOW LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AND SOME LIGHT AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO ALONG 100W FROM ACAPULCO
NORTHWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 30N76W TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS COVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
18N TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...
FROM THE EASTERN ISLANDS CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA WEST OF
40W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N41W TO 26N48W TO 21N56W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 25N48W BEYOND 32N41W. OVERCAST MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE LARGE SCALE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS SOUTH OF 20N17W 18N32W 10N44W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 15N60W 20N46W BEYOND 32N22W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE THAT ORIGINATES IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS OVERLAPPING WITH THE ALREADY-EXISTING
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPEAR TO BE ALONG 18N33W 10N40W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 41W.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AROUND
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N22W...BETWEEN AFRICA AND
32N41W 21N56W COLD FRONT.

$$
MT





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