[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 6N12W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W...TO 1S30W 1S40W
MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N
BETWEEN 11W AND 12W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE
SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 14W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM THE COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME TO 8N
BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO ALONG 100W/101W FROM ACAPULCO
NORTHWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 30N77W TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ANOTHER RIDGE IS
ALONG 27N85W 24N91W TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 20N96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS COVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
18N TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...
FROM THE EASTERN ISLANDS CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA WEST OF
40W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N44W TO 26N50W TO 22N56W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N54W 27N50W BEYOND 32N44W. OVERCAST MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE
LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS SOUTH OF 20N17W
18N32W 10N44W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N29W BEYOND
32N22W. REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPEAR
TO BE ALONG 18N33W 10N40W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 41W. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AROUND
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N26W...TO THE EAST
OF THE 32N44W 22N56W COLD FRONT.

$$
MT





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