[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 23W
TO 1S30W EQ40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 31N83W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W. BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW HAS INCREASED TEMPERATURES TO THE 60'S AND 70'S
ENDING THE COLD SNAP OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SMALL PATCH OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 93W-98W. EXPECT...VERY LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER N FLORIDA AND A
1010 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IS PRODUCING STRONG SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND W CUBA. MORE
SHOWERS WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA W OF 82W. A SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS ALSO OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 16N70W TO NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E VENEZUELA
NEAR 7N63W. SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W TO
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N72W. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N46W TO 22N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N26W. IN THE TROPICS... A SURFACE TROUGH
IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 21N59W 15N59W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 56W-61W MOVING W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
45W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 45W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 60W WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 60W FROM THE EQUATOR TO
20N. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO
RICO IN 24 HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA






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