[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W EQ50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE
IVORY COAST FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 3W-4W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
7W-11W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 20W
TO BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
30N93W PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TO W CUBA ALONG 25N80W 22N81W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN
79W-81W MOVING E. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW
FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS. A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS NOTED OVER THE N GULF ALONG
30N FROM E TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS...FOR A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE W GULF ALONG 93W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE PRESENT COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO
THE W ATLANTIC WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM W CUBA
TO HONDURAS ALONG 22N81W 16N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 82W-87W. 10-15 KT N WINDS ARE
W OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 70W-74W...AND
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 60W-63W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 78W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N77W TO 25N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW N OF 28N BETWEEN 70W-76W
MOVING E. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 32N36W 28N38W 22N46W 19N63W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW N OF 28N BETWEEN
30W-34W MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT BETWEEN 37W-63W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N23W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
10W-40W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15N27W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TWO COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA




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