[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N30W 3N40W EQ50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF GHANA FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 1E-3W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
LIBERIA FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 9W-11W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 20W TO BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
30N93W PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO W
CUBA ALONG 28N80W 23N82W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-81W
MOVING E. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW FLOW AND
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. A
110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS NOTED OVER THE N GULF ALONG 30N FROM E
TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR A
SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF ALONG 94W WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE PRESENT COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO THE
W ATLANTIC WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM W CUBA
TO HONDURAS ALONG 23N82W 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 83W-86W. 10KT N WINDS ARE W OF
THE FRONT. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 69W-74W...AND OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 60W-65W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N79W TO 28N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW N OF 29N BETWEEN 75W-78W
MOVING E. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 32N40W 26N43W 22N50W 20N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW N OF 27N BETWEEN 35W-40W
MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN 42W-60W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-40W. IN
THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AT 15N27W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TWO
COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA





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