[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1730 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1N50W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG OR NEAR THE ITCZ
EXCEPT AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AT 2N50W MOVING
WESTWARD ENTERING THE NORTHERN BRAZIL CITY OF AMAPA...AND AN
AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER WEST AFRICA 80 NM SOUTH
OF THE GHANA COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BRINGING SERENE
WEATHER TO MOST OF THE GULF. SHIP AND BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC 10 KTS TO 15 KTS WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...RIDGING IS PRODUCING
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING A MODERATE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN...DETECTED AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 94W WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 18N84W. THIS FEATURE IS ONLY BRINGING WEAK
CONVECTION...IF ANY...TO THE NORTHWEST BASIN. THE TAIL END OF
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER IS A UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR THAT
IS PREVENTING ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE EASTERLY
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS ARE NOTED OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE NW CORNER DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE WEAKENING TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG 32N74W 26N76W 23N80W
CONTINUING INTO CENTRAL CUBA. MODERATE CONVECTION IS 80 NM EAST
OF THE FRONT FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 67W TO 74W. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N30W 23N40W 20N50W TO
20N55W...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N65W. MODERATE
CONVECTION IS 50 NM EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN
28W AND 34W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE MEASURED BEHIND THE FRONT
NORTH OF 28N EAST OF 50W. LOOK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE
THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1018
MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 23N20W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. IN
THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AT 15N27W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TWO
COLD FRONTS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA


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