[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 10W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF
THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 4S-2N BETWEEN 34W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1016 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR
31N90W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO N
FLORIDA NEAR 31N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE
LOW FROM E MISSISSIPPI TO GEORGIA FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 84W-89W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE WARM FRONT AND E OF THE COLD FRONT
ARE FROM THE SE AT 10-15 KT. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 50'S
OVER THE N GULF TO THE 70'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA PRODUCING
SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N
AND W OF 90W...AND OVER THE N GULF STATES N OF 30N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N77W. A
RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-78W. PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN
NAMELY THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 78W...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N
BETWEEN 78W-85W...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N BETWEEN
81W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N38W TO 24N60W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE N BAHAMAS ALONG 24N70W
27N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A 1020 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N31W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N E OF 40W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N28W TO 24N40W WITH
SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA







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