[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N12W 3N29W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
50W. WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 1.5N-5N
BETWEEN 2W-10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS IS KEEPING LIGHT WINDS ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST...AND THEREFORE FOG HAS DEVELOP IN THIS REGION
EXTENDING TO AROUND 140 NM TO THE SEA BASIN.
FURTHERMORE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF FOG OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 82W
AND 83W. THIS AREA OF FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. A 1019 LOW IS LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM FROM THE LOW TO NEAR
28N90W...BECOMING COLD FRONT FROM THIS POINT SOUTH EASTWARD TO
26N93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND CONTINUING OUT TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WEAK
CONVECTION IS FOUND 70 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 25N91W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LOW MOVING INLAND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE N GULF
WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE WARM FRONT AND E OF THE
COLD FRONT ARE FROM THE SE AT 10-15 KT. THE SOUTHEASTERN BASIN
IS BEING INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING WEATHER
ACTIVITY OVER THE SE GULF BASIN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 90W. LOOK FOR THE
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALONG WITH 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-78W.
PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE
BASIN...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT AREAS FROM 16N AND 20N BETWEEN
60W TO 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER GREATER ANTILLES...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR
COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING OVER
THE CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPANDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N35W
TO 26N64W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE NW
FROM 26N64W TO 29N78W. THIS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS
LINKED TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 90 S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A 1020 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ALONG THE WEST AFRICAN COAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DEVELOP
GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY NORTH OF THE 29N
LATITUDE.

$$

GARCIA




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