[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130522
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 3N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 12W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN
35W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1016 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF E TEXAS
NEAR 30N94W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 26N94W 23N98W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM
THE LOW TO THE E GULF ALONG 30N87W 29N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM E LOUISIANA TO S ALABAMA FROM 29N-32N
BETWEEN 86W-90W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 30N E OF 93W. WINDS IN
THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE WARM AND STATIONARY FRONTS ARE FROM THE
SE AT 15-20 KT. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 50'S OVER THE N GULF
TO THE 70'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF STATES N OF 30N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO
MOVE NE TO S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N89W IN 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW TO S TEXAS WITH SHOWERS. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES. 10-15 SE SURFACE
FLOW WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE GULF E OF THE COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. A
RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-78W. PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN
NAMELY THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N
BETWEEN 75W-85W...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N BETWEEN
80W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N42W TO 24N65W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE N BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA ALONG 25N74W 28N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N
OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N32W. A 1007 MB LOW
IS NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 34N11W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 29N-34N BETWEEN 5W-12W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N E OF 40W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N10W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N30W TO 24N42W WITH
SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA






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