[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 5N30W 4N39W...INTO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE COMPARATIVELY SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA...ABOUT 70 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 21N96W. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N76W 24N90W 19N92W. A THIN LINE OF
CLOUDS THAT IS QUITE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MARKS THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 15N TO 21N.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE COMPARATIVELY THE MOST PROMINENT
FROM PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO 22N BETWEEN 64W AND 71W...
AND FROM 15N TO THE SAME ISLANDS BETWEEN 64W AND 72W. THIS TROUGH
ALSO SHOWED UP IN ASCAT-HIGH RESOLUTION DATA FROM 10/0200 UTC.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FLAT. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW
FROM JAMAICA/HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST
OF 78W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W IS LARGELY
CYCLONIC. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST
OF THE AREA...MEANING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 27N32W TO 22N36W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO
28N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH...LIKELY THE REMNANT OF AN EARLIER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...IS ALONG 31N32W 26N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 28N TO 33N BETWEEN 26N AND 28W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 10W AND
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA.

$$
MT




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