[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1700 UTC.

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N11W 5N22W 3N32W 3N42W 2N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
COMPARATIVELY SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL  FLORIDA...
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N83W 25N88W
23N93W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N95W. THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO EASTWARD BRINGING ALONG BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE. A THIN LINE OF
CLOUDS THAT IS QUITE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MARKS THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE COMPARATIVELY THE MOST PROMINENT
FROM WESTERN PUERTO RICO TO 22N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W...DUE TO WEAK
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS FLAT ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW FROM 22N TO 17N
BETWEEN 79W AND 86W BECOMES SOUTHERLY 10 KTS TO 15 KTS. EASTERLY
SURFACE WIND FLOW 15 KTS TO 20 KTS COVERS THE REST OF THE BASIN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N78W TO
28N80W. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE 50 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL BASIN. A COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
ALONG 30N30W TO 29N33W. SCATTER MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$

FG


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